Tariff revenue analysis

The following scenarios provide an extended view of the tariff revenue analysis in the Peterson Institute of International Economics paper by McKibbin and Shuetrim (2025) forthcoming.

Tariff increases are imposed by the USA on the goods (but not the services) imported from all other regions, starting in 2025. Under one scenario, these tariffs are not reciprocated. Under the second scenario the tariff increases by the USA are reciprocated by the other regions.

The results are presented as deviations from a baseline that has no increases in tariffs by any of the regions.

Analysis has been performed using model 6G build 182MS2025a.

Results without retaliatory tariffs by the rest of the world

1. 10 percentage-point tariff increase by the US without retaliation

2. 15 percentage-point tariff increase by the US without retaliation

3. 20 percentage-point tariff increase by the US without retaliation

Results with retaliatory tariffs by the rest of the world

1. 10 percentage-point tariff increase by the US with retaliation

2. 15 percentage-point tariff increase by the US with retaliation

3. 20 percentage-point tariff increase by the US with retaliation