G-Cubed Modeling Trump’s Tariffs
See McKibbin, Noland, and Shuetrim (2025) for details.
Analysis based on tariff announcements up to September 1, 2025
Tariff increases are imposed by the USA on the goods (but not the services) imported from all other regions, starting in 2025. The tariffs are based on those announced in April by the Trump administration.
The following scenarios compare the original high and low US tariff regimes with US tariffs based on announcements up to September 1, 2025.
The following charts only include projections based on US tariffs. They do not include retaliation by other countries/regions. They do not include country risk adjustments.
The results are presented as deviations from a baseline that has no increases in tariffs by any of the regions.
- Australia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Brazil sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Canada sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- China sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- France sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Germany sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Great Britain sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- India sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Indonesia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Italy sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Japan sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Mexico sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Russia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Saudi Arabia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- South Africa sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- South Korea sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Türkiye sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Rest of the Eurozone sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Other advanced economies sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Rest of Asia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Other oil-based economies sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
- Rest of the World sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
The shocks used for the high and low US tariff scenarios are documented in the following charts: