Modeling Trump’s Tariffs

Analysis based on tariff announcements up to May 10, 2025

Tariff increases are imposed by the USA on the goods (but not the services) imported from all other regions, starting in 2025. The tariffs are based on those announced in April by the Trump administration.

Under scenario one, there is no retaliation by other countries/regions.

Under scenario 2, other countries/regions retaliate with tariffs of their own.

In scenario 3, country risk for the US, Canada and Mexico is increased by 75 basis points.

The results are presented as deviations from a baseline that has no increases in tariffs by any of the regions.

• Australia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Brazil sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Canada sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• China sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• France sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Germany sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Great Britain sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• India sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Indonesia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Italy sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Japan sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Mexico sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Russia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Saudi Arabia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• South Africa sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• South Korea sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Türkiye sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators

• USA sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators

• Rest of the Eurozone sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Other advanced economies sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Rest of Asia sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Other oil-based economies sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators
• Rest of the World sectoral analysis and macroeconomic indicators

The shocks used for the high and low US tariff scenarios are documented in the following charts:

• Low US tariff scenario shocks
• High US tariff scenario shocks