US tariff increases

Analysis has been performed using model 6G build 182.

Tariff increases are imposed by the USA on the goods (but not the services) imported from all other regions, starting in 2025. Under one scenario, these tariffs are not reciprocated. Under the second scenario the tariff increases by the USA are reciprocated by the other regions.

The results are presented as deviations from a baseline that has no increases in tariffs by any of the regions.

April 2, 2025 scenarios

The following results are based based upon our understanding of the announcements up to and including April 2, 2025.

In these results, tariffs are also imposed on Russia to reflect the existing Russia sanctions. This is despite the zero tariff announcements for Russia on April 2, 2025.

Further refinements to the tariff rates are possible, as clarity increases.

  1. Consequences of US tariffs without retaliation by the rest of the world

  2. Consequences with retaliation by the rest of the world

Results for tariff revenue analysis without retaliatory tariffs by the rest of the world

  1. 10 percentage-point tariff increase by the US without retaliation

  2. 15 percentage-point tariff increase by the US without retaliation

  3. 20 percentage-point tariff increase by the US without retaliation

Results with retaliatory tariffs by the rest of the world

  1. 10 percentage-point tariff increase by the US with retaliation

  2. 15 percentage-point tariff increase by the US with retaliation

  3. 20 percentage-point tariff increase by the US with retaliation