Modeling Trump’s Tariffs

The McKibbin, Noland and Shuetrim (2025) paper on Trump’s Liberation Day and subsequently-adjusted tariffs is forthcoming.

Analysis has been performed using model 6G build 181 with the Chinese exchange rate freely floating.

The paper presents results for a subset of specific countries in the model. This dashboard provides a more complete set of information across countries and variables.

These more comprehensive results are updated as policy changes occur.

Comprehensive analysis

• US tariff scenario updates based on tariffs as at 11 September 2025

• US tariff scenario updates based on tariffs as at 1 September 2025

• Analysis for original paper, based on tariffs as at 10 May 2025

References

(2025) W. McKibbin, M. Noland and G. Shuetrim, “Modeling Trump’s Tariffs”, Peterson Institute for International Economics.