Modeling Trump’s Tariffs

The McKibbin, Noland and Shuetrim (2025) paper on Trump’s Liberation Day and subsequently-adjusted tariffs is forthcoming.

Analysis has been performed using model 6G build 182C. Build 182C differs from build 182 in that the Chinese exchange rate is freely floating.

The paper presents results for a subset of specific countries in the model. This dashboard provides a more complete set of information across countries and variables.

These more comprehensive results are updated as policy changes occur.

Comprehensive analysis

• Analysis for original paper, based on tariffs as at 10 May 2025

References

(2025) W. McKibbin, M. Noland and G. Shuetrim, “Modeling Trump’s Tariffs”, Peterson Institute for International Economics..